Polymarket + forecasting-case analysis

Early-warning signal for meaningful market activity

Interactive browser report built from the raw/processed outputs in this project. It shows exactly what the proposed checks would have fired on, what their observed hit rate was, and how much warning Ukraine-style markets could have given.

What the current analysis says

Summary metrics

Proposed signal levels

  1. Level 1 / monitor: unusual volume plus price lift. Good for “something is moving; check news/source quality now.”
  2. Level 2 / informed-flow: Level 1 plus positive Yes-side pressure and not-yet-certain price. In the current sample this fired rarely but cleanly.
  3. Context filter: group sibling markets, down-rank scheduled deadline/settlement arbitrage, and snapshot public news at alert time.

Honest interpretation of “9/10”

The backtest produced — for the strict rule and — for a softer rule. That is stronger than 9/10 in this dataset, but it is not yet an out-of-sample reliability claim because many rows are sibling markets around the same events.

Draw the line yourself

Rule explorer

Recomputes on — resolved markets with features.

Resolved-market scatter

Orange points are rows selected by the current line.

Markets selected by the current rule

User-requested case

Ukraine invasion warning: how much heads up?

Event date: 2022-02-24

Forecast timeline before invasion

Community aggregate points vs high-intensity forecaster points; sourced reconstruction, not authenticated API raw dump.

Practical alert thresholds

Interpretation: an aggregate ≥50% was a “weeks ahead, take contingency planning seriously” signal; ≥60% on Feb 13 was a “leave Kyiv / prepare now” signal; expert/intensive monitoring reached 90%+ roughly 12 days out.

Ukraine evidence points

Pre-public timing check

Did markets move before public timestamps?

Positive minutes = before public timestamp; negative = after.

First crossing ≥80% relative to public source time

Bars are clipped to keep the chart readable; full values are in the table.

Timing rows

Same checks on active markets

Active scan snapshot

Examples and controls

Case studies

Auditability

Raw data and caveats

Local files used

    Critical caveats

    • Backtest windows are often anchored to Polymarket close/resolution; only selected rows have independent public-news anchors.
    • Markets are not independent. Sibling markets around Iran/Venezuela can inflate confidence and p-values.
    • Old Ukraine 2022 Polymarket CLOB data was not available through current endpoints; Ukraine section uses sourced public forecasting points.
    • This is a monitoring/triage dashboard, not proof of insider trading and not trading advice.